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“ There are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.

— What A McCain Win Looks Like…” on FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

“ Let’s look back at how the vast majority in the modern era have left the White House. President Kennedy was assassinated. Lyndon B. Johnson and Richard M. Nixon were driven from power. Gerald R. Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush were repudiated by the voters. Bill Clinton departed after his most intimate personal failings were excavated for public examination. George W. Bush is leaving as the most unpopular commander in chief in the history of polling. Perhaps the only president lately who left office reasonably intact was Ronald Reagan,

— “The Nation: The Mindset in the Middle of the Storm,” NY Times

A Proclamation re. Election Day

From the ad wizards at Coudal Partners:

WHEREAS The Fourth Day of November in the year 2008 represents the long-awaited resolution to the fiercely contested Presidential election. WHEREAS By nature of Mr. Obama’s residency and its proud Democratic tradition, the great city of Chicago finds itself squarely at the center of attention on this momentous day. WHEREAS No municipal or government body has shown the foresight or fortitude to state what needs to be stated. NOW THEREFORE WE, Coudal Partners, do hereby proclaim that NO WORK be done on NOVEMBER FOURTH

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“ In a bit of miscommunication, John McCain thought Joe-the-Plumber was in the audience at a rally in Ohio and called out for him to come on stage. But Joe wasn’t there. Apparently the campaign didn’t tell him to come. He did catch up with McCain later in the day, but this kind of snafu just gives the impression that the campaign is disorganized. This kind of thing never happened to George Bush during his campaigns.

— Electoral-vote.com

“ John McCain and the Republican National Committee are now running robocalls attacking Obama as weak on terrorism — in McCain’s home state of Arizona, according to multiple readers from the state. The call signals genuine worry about McCain’s home state at a time when several polls show the race to be much closer than expected there.

— TPM Election Central: McCain Now Running Robocalls Attacking Obama In Home State Of Arizona!

“ the Weekly Reader’s quadrennial poll of students from kindergarten to 12th grade predicts that Obama will win big time, with 55% of the vote to McCain’s 43%. This survey has been surprisingly accurate in the past, getting 12 of the past 13 presidential elections right, missing only Bill Clinton’s win in a 3-way race in 1992. The survey’s accuracy may be due to children getting most of their political views from their parents and the children’s views may more accurately reflect what their parents are really thinking than what the parents are telling the pollsters.

— Electoral-vote.com

“ The Palin shopping spree is more than the average American household spends on clothes in 80 years.

— Dress Like Palin

“ If I were watching Fox News, I wouldn’t vote for me, right? Because the way I’m portrayed 24/7 is as a freak! I am the latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, arrogant liberal. Who wants somebody like that?

— Obama on Obama, in “Will Gun-Toting, Churchgoing White Guys Pull the Lever for Barack Obama?” by Matt Bai in the NY Times

» David Frum Attacking His Fellows

It’s fun to watch the Republicans gash each other already. The bloodsport should only increase over the next week…

“ This is what the Republican Party has done to us this year: It has placed within reach of the Oval Office a woman who is a religious fanatic and a proud, boastful ignoramus. Those who despise science and learning are not anti-elitist. They are morally and intellectually slothful people who are secretly envious of the educated and the cultured. And those who prate of spiritual warfare and demons are not just “people of faith” but theocratic bullies. On Nov. 4, anyone who cares for the Constitution has a clear duty to repudiate this wickedness and stupidity.

— “The GOP ticket’s appalling contempt for science and learning”, Christopher Hitchens, Slate Magazine

» Right-Wing Rumors about Obama

A great rundown of right-wingers’ rumors about Obama. Also illuminating: George Packer’s comparison of these rumors with ridiculous rumors he heard in Iraq.

“ The 2008 election hasn’t even happened but the 2012 campaign has (conditionally) started already. Newsweek has an article—and there will soon be more—about what will happen to the Republican Party if Obama wins. The evangelical faction will no doubt scream that they lost because McCain was a moderate (although his voting record suggests otherwise) and what they need next time is a attractive 100% dyed-in-the-wool conservative who opposes everything from abortion to polar bears. They figure that between now and the start of the 2012 primaries, Palin can read some books and articles so she can get through the primary debates. What they want is to have 2012 be a full-blown culture war. The big-business wing of the party is appalled by this narrow stance (wide stances are OK with them) and wants to have a candidate who will run on tax cuts, such as Mitt Romney.

— Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily

Northfield Needs a Few (Hundred) Sharrows

sharrow n. A chevron-and-bike logo painted on a road lane to indicate that the lane is to be shared by both cars and bicycles.

“ If Obama can win red states like Indiana by 10 points, this is going to be the biggest Democratic landslide since Johnson crushed Goldwater in 1964.

— Electoral-vote.com

Democratic Clothes

… [Palin’s] $150,000 shopping spree has become a news story in itself. After first appearing on Politico, it has since been reported by the Washington Post, the NY Times, the LA Times, CNN, Fox News, and thousands of other outlets. … In addition to sifting through the RNC filing (where this data came from), Politico also went through the DNC filing to see if there was anything similar. There wasn’t. Obama and Biden are wearing their own clothes.

From electoral-vote.com on 10/23